Outright Odds: 300/1

Group A Winners: 9/1

Ecuador qualified for their second World Cup finals in succession on the back of a remarkable home record which included victories over both Brazil and Argentina. So should punters rush out and lump on the huge 3001/ (Bet365) odds available for the largest upset in World Cup history? In short, no.

Ecuador qualified with one of the most lopsided qualifying record of any team competing in Germany this summer. Quito, the country’s capital, stands 2,850 metres above sea level and assisted by the thin air, Ecuador were almost unstoppable at home. They won seven out nine home games, including victories against the South American giants with the other two results goalless draws against Peru and Uruguay.

Away from home it was an entirely different story. Five defeats, two draws and one victory in the equally high altitude of Bolivia was perhaps a more realistic measure of their capabilities but overall they sealed third place in the group.

Ecuador will have to improve on their travels if they want to avoid humiliation in Germany. Their stint in the 2002 World Cup was their first but they have the victory over the third-placed team of 1998, Croatia, to draw inspiration from.

Potentially, they could be a tough team to break down in defence. Captain Ivan Hurtado, a 31-year old veteran with nearly 130 caps to his name is partnered by Giovany Espinoza who was the only player in South America to play in all 18 qualifying matches. For all this experience, the defence can be caught flat and, if Espinoza is taken out of the reckoning, is all over the place when high balls are played in the box. They are also weak in terms of goalkeeping.

Ecuador have moved away from the short-passing through the middle which has categorised their game in favour of striking quickly down the wings. In Edison Mendez, who scored the winning goal against Croatia and five goals in qualifying, they have a player who can cause problems. There are also high hopes surrounding Luis Antonio Valencia, 20, who chipped in with another three.

Former Southampton flop Augustin Delgado is Ecuador’s main focal point in attack. He netted five times in qualifying and scored his country’s first ever World Cup goal, taking the lead after five minutes against Mexico in a match they eventually lost 2-1.

Ecuador’s lack of experience in Europe could prove to be their downfall as they have only played three full internationals on the continent and they looked completely overawed when playing Italy four years ago. They will do well not to finish bottom of the group.

Recommended Bet:

Ecuador’s lack of experience in Europe and dire away form means they cannot be backed with any confidence apart from finishing bottom of the group. Look out for potentially tasty odds on them suffering a «shock» defeat against Costa Rica and consider them to finish bottom of Group A.

Costa Rica to beat Ecuador @ 2/1

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